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Center for Energy Transition Research
From Fuel-Based to System-Based Energy. Łukasiewicz – ITECH Commentary on the NECP 2026 Update
The implementation of the WEM and WAM scenarios under KPEiK 2026 would require economy-wide investment of PLN 1,039–1,128 billion between 2026 and 2030, including PLN 390–486 billion in the power sector.
The update to Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan, adopted by the Council of Ministers, marks an official shift in how the country’s energy transition is framed: from a climate-focused project to a strategic, long-term programme for strengthening national security and modernising the economy.
An expert from the Łukasiewicz – ITECH Institute of Innovation and Technology, Agata Urbaniak, PhD, Eng. , has just released a commentary titled: “FROM FUEL-BASED TO SYSTEM-BASED ENERGY. COMMENTARY ON THE NECP 2026”. The analysis clearly indicates that Poland is on the verge of a fundamental restructuring of its economic framework. The target of achieving more than a 50% share of renewable energy sources (RES) in power generation by 2030 is no longer a political aspiration but a rigorous economic benchmark. This structural shift will be further accelerated by the rising costs of CO₂ emissions under the EU ETS and the upcoming ETS2 frameworks.
In the published commentary, Agata Urbaniak, PhD, Eng., emphasizes that the success of this unprecedented endeavor relies heavily on addressing several critical implementation challenges simultaneously. Key priority areas include:
- Grid Infrastructure and Large-Scale Energy Storage: These represent absolute technical prerequisites for integrating and stabilizing the rapidly growing capacity of renewable energy sources within the national grid.
- New Regulatory Frameworks for Decarbonization: There is an urgent need to establish a transparent and reliable legal environment for biomethane and hydrogen, unlocking their full potential to stabilize the domestic energy mix.
- Energy Transition Governance: The ultimate success of the NECP 2026 will be decided at the operational level – through the streamlined coordination of legislative, financial, and institutional processes.
With this publication, Łukasiewicz – ITECH is launching an ongoing series of analyses and monitoring of regulatory dynamics. Future expert publications will cover upcoming updates to the Polish Nuclear Power Programme (PPEJ), the national hydrogen strategy, the SMR deployment roadmap, and the implementation of key EU legislative instruments including REDIII, EPBD, and the CBAM mechanism. We position ourselves as a key competence center ready to provide public administration and energy sector companies with data-driven strategic insights.
We invite policy makers, regulators, infrastructure companies, and industry experts to read the comprehensive analysis.