Resilience, Security, Transformation – The Future of Poland’s Energy Sector to 2040. A New Report from Łukasiewicz – ITECH

The report outlines possible pathways for the development of Poland’s energy system through to 2040, combining a geopolitical perspective with an analysis of technologies, infrastructure and economic conditions. The authors emphasise that energy security is no longer simply a matter of ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies. Increasingly important factors include resilience to crises and cyber threats, access to strategic raw materials and technologies, cost stability, and the state’s capacity to deliver long-term investments.

The foresight study examined six key technological areas: renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, low-carbon hydrogen and e-fuels, smart grids and digital energy systems, energy storage, and power-to-heat technologies and clean district heating.

The analysis indicates that Poland’s energy security will depend not on a single dominant technology, but on an integrated system built around a diverse mix of energy sources, modern infrastructure and the capacity to respond to disruptions. The development of individual technologies must therefore go hand in hand with grid expansion, securing adequate financing and strengthening domestic industrial capabilities.

Three Scenarios for the Development of Nuclear Energy

Given the strategic importance of nuclear energy and the considerable uncertainties surrounding its development, the authors conducted a detailed scenario analysis of this sector. The report outlines three possible pathways for the development of Poland’s nuclear power programme:

• Peripheral Scenario – a cautionary scenario in which the nuclear power programme slows down or reaches a standstill due to financing difficulties, political obstacles, technological dependencies and growing public opposition.
• Stable Implementation Scenario – the investment projects proceed at a predictable pace, supported by stable financing, continuity in strategic decision-making, effective management and public acceptance.
• Ambitious Transformation Scenario – the successful implementation of the nuclear power programme not only strengthens energy security but also serves as a catalyst for the development of domestic industry, new technologies and research capabilities.

The analysis demonstrates that the success of Poland’s nuclear power programme will depend not only on the choice of technology and the availability of capital, but above all on the state’s ability to sustain investment efforts consistently over the coming decades.

What Do Łukasiewicz – ITECH Experts Recommend?

The authors translate the findings of the foresight study into concrete policy recommendations. The key recommendations include:

• Strengthening Coordination and Accountability for Results – managing the nuclear power programme based on actual financial, administrative, infrastructural and technological readiness, rather than solely on formal milestones.
• Introducing an Early Warning Mechanism – monitoring risks related to delays, cost overruns, supplier availability and skills shortages before they jeopardise the implementation of investment projects.
• Ensuring Continuity of Funding and Strategic Decision-Making – establishing mechanisms to sustain the implementation of the long-term programme regardless of political changes and budget cycles.
• Developing Domestic Capabilities and Supply Chains – preparing Polish companies to participate in nuclear power projects, investing in workforce development, research and certification, and strengthening the national scientific and technological base.

According to the authors, the success of the energy transition should be measured not only by the number of generating units brought online, but also by sustained improvements in the capabilities of the state, industry and research institutions. Nuclear energy has the potential to drive the development of new technological specialisations and strengthen Poland’s domestic economic capacity, provided that the entire ecosystem is adequately prepared.

The report provides a foundation for strategic discussion on the future of Poland’s energy sector and identifies measures that could strengthen the resilience of the energy system under various development scenarios through to 2040.

We invite you to read the full report.