The European Union is deeply engaged in supporting Ukraine as it continues to defend itself. Europe’s model of support is gradually shifting from the provision of military equipment towards long-term industrial and technological cooperation. This is one of the factors contributing to the militarisation of Ukraine in the fourth year of the full-scale war.
Strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities also brings challenges that will become particularly significant once the war ends. The author argues that the EU will need a long-term strategy to manage and, where necessary, reverse these dynamics in the post-war period.

The challenges facing post-war Ukraine

Among the key challenges Ukraine is likely to face after the war are the emergence of a new political and economic elite linked to the defence sector, problems arising from surplus arms production and the control of weapons flows, as well as the country’s difficult economic and demographic situation.

Another important issue is the impact of the war on the functioning of the state and its institutions. Years of martial law and the accompanying centralisation of power mean that, once the conflict ends, Ukraine will need not only economic reconstruction but also stronger democratic institutions and reinforced rule-of-law mechanisms.

The paper’s central argument is that without Ukraine’s lasting integration into the structures of the European Union, the post-war processes of demilitarisation and renewed democratisation will be considerably more difficult. Continued efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities should therefore be accompanied by a clearly defined vision for the country’s post-war future and by further progress through the successive stages of the EU accession process.

Accession as part of a long-term security strategy

According to the author, Ukraine’s alignment with the EU acquis and the continuation of reforms should serve not only to prepare the country formally for membership, but also to strengthen democratic institutions and enhance the stability of the post-war state. The prospect of membership should also be accompanied by appropriate security guarantees and measures designed to reduce the risk of violence associated with post-war demobilisation.

A clear membership perspective could also bring economic benefits by increasing investor confidence and encouraging the inflow of capital needed for Ukraine’s reconstruction. At the same time, the integration process will require responses to demographic challenges and labour-market pressures, including solutions that reconcile freedom of movement with the need to rebuild the country’s domestic economic capacity.

The policy paper “Anchoring Militarized Ukraine in the European Order: A Case for a Clear Post-War Path to EU Accession” develops one of the key issues discussed during the EUSI Policy Dialogue in Dublin: the relationship between further enlargement of the European Union and the future shape of European security.