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Center for Energy Transition Research

From an Investment Programme to Building a Nuclear Energy Sector. Łukasiewicz – ITECH Commentary on the Draft Update to the Polish Nuclear Power Programme

The draft update to the Polish Nuclear Power Programme (PPEJ 2026) retains the strategic objective of building two nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of approximately 6–9 GWe. The first plant, planned for the Lubiatowo–Kopalino site, is expected to comprise three AP1000 units with a total capacity of around 3,750 MWe. Main construction work is scheduled to begin in 2028, with the successive units entering commercial operation between 2036 and 2038. For the second plant, the technology is expected to be selected in 2027, construction to begin in 2032, and the first units to enter commercial operation in 2040 and 2041.


Łukasiewicz – ITECH experts Agata Urbaniak, PhD, Eng. and Maciej Skuza have published a commentary entitledFrom an Investment Programme to Building a Nuclear Energy Sector. Commentary on the Draft Update to the Polish Nuclear Power Programme ”.

The analysis shows that PPEJ 2026 goes well beyond plans to build individual nuclear power plants. It increasingly presents nuclear energy as a new strategic sector of the economy, whose development will require coordinated action on financing, domestic industrial capacity, workforce development, regulation, research facilities, infrastructure and education. Alongside renewable energy, nuclear power is intended to become one of the two pillars of Poland’s energy transition, providing a stable, dispatchable and low-carbon source of electricity.

The authors note that the updated PPEJ makes the programme more deliverable in practice. The timetable has been aligned with concrete milestones, including administrative decisions, geological surveys, licensing procedures, the financing model and the development of supporting infrastructure. The financing structure for the first nuclear power plant comprises 30% state-provided equity, 70% debt financing backed by State Treasury guarantees, and a two-way contract for difference. The document also provides for a PLN 60.2 billion capital injection into Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe between 2025 and 2030.

The programme’s successful implementation will depend on progress across several key areas:

  • Maintaining the schedule and financial discipline: Nuclear projects are among the most complex and capital-intensive infrastructure megaprojects. The main risks remain delays, cost overruns and the limited experience of domestic institutions in delivering projects on this scale.
  • Developing the domestic supply chain: The PPEJ envisages Polish companies accounting for at least 40% of the value of the first unit, with this share expected to increase for subsequent units. More than 1,500 Polish companies have already expressed an interest in participating in the project, while the value of contracts and orders awarded to domestic businesses has exceeded PLN 1 billion. Further growth in local content will, however, depend on companies’ ability to meet the rigorous quality, certification and documentation requirements applicable to nuclear-grade projects.
  • Building the workforce and developing expertise: At the peak of construction, more than 10,000 people may be working on the site of the first nuclear power plant. The programme therefore requires years of preparation for engineers, technicians, operators, regulatory and inspection specialists, as well as experts in quality assurance, radiation protection and safety. The authors primarily recommend the “nuclear upskilling” of existing capabilities by incorporating nuclear-specific knowledge, standards and qualifications into established technical disciplines.
  • Strengthening public institutions and expert capacity: Successful delivery of the PPEJ depends not only on the investor and contractors, but also on the capacity of the National Atomic Energy Agency, the Office of Technical Inspection, public administration, universities and research institutes to carry out regulatory, supervisory, research and training activities. The planned Nuclear Competence Centre is expected to play an important role by bringing together the needs of industry, research, education, the regulator and public administration.

According to the authors, the greatest value of PPEJ 2026 lies in the shift from delivering a single investment project to building lasting capabilities across the state and the wider economy. The programme’s success should be measured not only by whether successive units are commissioned on schedule, but also by the development of domestic expertise, the participation of Polish industry, the growth of research and laboratory capacity, and the readiness of public institutions to operate effectively within the nuclear sector.

The Polish Nuclear Power Programme is one of the largest and most complex infrastructure and economic undertakings in the country’s history. Its implementation could not only strengthen Poland’s energy security, but also drive the development of industry, research, engineering services and new areas of technological specialisation.

We invite experts, policymakers, representatives of government administration, regulated industries and infrastructure companies to read the full document.

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